On Monday morning, the Southern Plains, particularly northeast Texas and southern Oklahoma are anticipated to see severe weather as a continuing line of storms pushes eastward.
Cities like Dallas, Fort Worth, and Tulsa are anticipated to have substantial impacts from damaging winds and probably localized tornadoes beginning in the morning and extending throughout the afternoon before quickly moving through.
Upper Levels:
A negatively slanted mid-level trough over the southern Plains is projected to move fast into the Mississippi Valley by Monday. This dynamic upper-level setting will exacerbate atmospheric conditions favorable to violent thunderstorm formation.
Surface Forecast:
A continuous series of storms is expected to move into the region by early Monday, aided by a quickly expanding surface low. The related cold front will interact with a fairly unstable air mass with CAPE values ranging from 500 to 700 J per kilogram.
Despite the low instability values, severe dynamic lifting and significant wind shear of 50-60 knots are likely to improve storm organization and possible severity. This environment may sustain both linear and discrete supercell structures, increasing the probability of damaging winds and embedded tornadoes.
Timing:
Severe storms are expected to be active in the morning and develop as they move eastward into the Southern Plains.
The biggest risk time is forecast to last from late morning to afternoon, hitting regions such as Dallas, Fort Worth, and Tulsa. The risk of severe weather will decrease by late afternoon as the system moves eastward and encounters less favorable air conditions.
States and Cities Impacted:
Significant severe weather impacts are expected in northeast Texas and southern Oklahoma, with major cities including Dallas, Fort Worth, and Tulsa in the path of the storms.