The Atlantic Hurricane Season ends on November 30, 2024, but as we approach that date, the Caribbean is preoccupied with a prospective tropical system.
The National Hurricane Center reported Wednesday afternoon that Potential Tropical Cyclone 19 has formed in the western Caribbean. If it develops into a tropical storm, it will be named Sara. Hurricane and tropical storm warnings have been issued for portions of Honduras and Nicaragua.
The storm was expected to intensify into a tropical storm on Thursday, according to the hurricane center. It is anticipated to approach Honduras’ north coast late Friday and may stay there into the weekend, posing a risk of life-threatening flash floods in the Central American country.
Hurricane hunters are set to fly to the area on Thursday to assess the power and structure of the developing weather system.
The western Caribbean’s low-pressure system created suitable circumstances for the emergence of a tropical system. Forecast models combine current environmental conditions with previous data to generate “spaghetti plots” of where systems may track. Each model employs a unique set of computations, which explains how the predicted track is the result of their consensus.
This system’s strength is governed by how much fuel it has—factors such as being in a favorable environment over warm oceans, little wind shear, and no intercepting fronts—and how long it stays in those favorable conditions.
Regardless of its power, projection models show it sticking in the western Caribbean into the weekend before heading north and entering the Gulf of Mexico early next week.
After hitting the Gulf, forecast models predict it will make a right turn and proceed near Florida by late next week.
A lot can happen between now and next week and circumstances can change quickly, but countries such as Jamaica and the Cayman Islands should prepare for severe rainfall in the coming days. Florida citizens should continue to follow the forecast as new information becomes available.