A dynamic storm system is poised to break away into the Desert Southwest, resulting in a significant spell of precipitation for the High Plains beginning Thursday and ending Friday.
This strong upper-level low will soon be cut off from the jet stream, lingering over Arizona and New Mexico Thursday before moving ENE into the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles Friday. This will provide for a 48-hour window during which both rain and snow are expected.
Rain and snow will fall early Thursday morning, shortly after midnight, across eastern New Mexico and the far western panhandles.
A WINTER STORM WATCH is in force for Dallam, Cimarron, and Union counties from Wednesday night to Thursday and Friday, with snow accumulations of more than 6 inches possible. A heavy snowfall of 6-to-12 inches appears more likely in Union County, with locally greater amounts possible.
Low visibility and icy roads may create hazardous travel conditions for Thursday’s morning and evening commute. Moderate to major traffic effects are likely over New Mexico’s northeast portion on Thursday. Depending on how the low evolves, more snow may fall Thursday night and Friday before a quieter stretch of weather during the weekend.
Temperatures in the panhandles will be marginally too warm for snow as you move east, but 1-to-3 inches of rain appear likely on top of rain-soaked land from a system last weekend. Flooding will be an issue, at least locally.
This November, Amarillo has already had 2-to-3 inches of rain, with another 1-to-3 inches expected later this week. For comparison, Amarillo typically receives less than 1 inch of rain throughout November.
Reference: Heavy rain and snow on Thursday and Friday