Much of the forecast data now points to a possible winter storm arriving on Thanksgiving or Black Friday. Following Thanksgiving, considerably colder air should move into Lower Michigan, kicking off our lake-effect snow season.
Although Thanksgiving is still six days away, the two best weather models indicate that the southern part of Michigan will have snowfall. It does not appear to be a major snowstorm, but our first widespread few inches are conceivable.
Here is the best model in what is known as ensemble mode. The model has been adjusted 50 times and then averaged. The snowfall forecast below is for Thanksgiving and the following weekend.
The light blue swath from Iowa to Illinois to Indiana indicates that there will be a couple of inches of snow on Thanksgiving. By late Thanksgiving, the far southern Lower may also be experiencing light snow.
The most decisive precipitation occurs after Thanksgiving when cooler air triggers Lake-effect snow. The prediction shown here is for the end of the holiday weekend.
In my mind, this makes sense. thus accumulating snow will not require much chilly air. The snow would fall in Michigan’s classic snow belts: the Upper Peninsula, Northwest Lower Michigan, and Southwest Lower Michigan.
The snow forecast above does not account for melting on warm ground. The forecasted amounts are likely to be slightly higher than what occurs, at least through Sunday, November 30.
There are indicators of significantly colder air in the first week of December, which would result in our first big lake-effect snow.