Tropical Depression 18 has intensified into Tropical Storm Rafael, according to the National Hurricane Center’s most recent advisory. A tropical storm watch has been issued for the lower and middle Florida Keys, from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge, as well as the Dry Tortugas.
The National Hurricane Center expects Tropical Storm Rafael to develop and become Hurricane Rafael by Tuesday as it approaches Cuba, where a hurricane and tropical storm watch are currently in effect.
Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center reports that the western tip of the Florida Panhandle is squarely on the right edge of Rafael’s projected course. According to AccuWeather, Escambia and Santa Rosa counties are within the tropical eye path.
The storm’s near route includes Jamaica and Cuba.
“The brewing tropical storm is expected to make a northeastward turn across Jamaica and Cuba this week, bringing heavy downpours and gusty winds to those islands.” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alan Reppert stated.
Once the storm moves beyond the northern Caribbean, it may take several courses, so Floridians in the western panhandle should monitor its progress over the next week.
Meanwhile, here’s everything you need to know about Tropical Storm Rafael.
Where is Tropical Storm Rafael today?
Tropical Storm Rafael is traveling north at around 9 mph. It is forecast to move northwest later today and remain in that direction for the following three days. The tropical depression is expected to reach Jamaica Monday night and pass near or over the Cayman Islands on Tuesday. It will approach Cuba on Wednesday.
- Location: Approximately 175 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica, and 395 miles southeast of the Grand Cayman Islands.
- Maximum sustained winds are 45 mph.
- Current movement: North (10 degrees) @ 9 mph.
- Minimum central pressure: 997 MB (29.44 inches).
Will we see Hurricane Rafael?
Meteorologists predict that Tropical Storm Rafael will intensify into a hurricane by Tuesday afternoon after passing through Jamaica. Hurricane Rafael will then head northwest, crossing the western tip of Cuba and continuing toward the United States Gulf Coast.
Will Tropical Storm Rafael Affect Florida?
Tropical Storm Rafael is expected to hit the Gulf of Mexico this week, but predicting its long-term trajectory or strength is challenging due to a variety of reasons.
Most Rafael spaghetti models see the storm moving along the middle Gulf Coast, with landfall ranging from Louisiana to Mobile, Alabama. Depending on the storm’s severity at landfall, any of these locations could have an impact on the western tip of Florida’s Panhandle.
Hurricane Ivan made landfall as a Category 3 storm near Gulf Shores, Alabama, exactly 20 years ago, causing extensive structural damage throughout Okaloosa County. Hurricane Katrina made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane in southeast Louisiana, causing floods and structural damage in downtown Pensacola and Pensacola Beach.
Rafael is projected to be a less powerful hurricane or tropical storm, but inhabitants should stay alert.
However, an unexpected hook is also a possibility.
“The future track will depend on the movement of a dip in the jet stream more than 1,000 miles away over the US next week,” AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno stated.
“If that jet stream dip pushes far enough to the east, it will tend to scoop up the tropical feature and possibly draw it across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and into South Florida,” according to Rayno. “However, if the jet stream dips to the west, the tropical feature may move into the western or central Gulf of Mexico, threatening locations as far west as Louisiana or Texas. It is also possible that it may continue due westward and fade over southern Mexico.
Where Might Rafael Go if It Made Landfall in the United States?
According to AccuWeather, a central Gulf Coast landfall would likely bring extra rain to the eastern United States around the middle of November. Tropical rains would increase the potential of flash flooding while also bringing rain to places that are currently experiencing abnormally dry weather.
“A track into South Florida would translate to little or no rain over the mainland of the Southeast states, but a track more along the central Gulf coast would allow the potential for rain to push well to the north,” Alex DaSilva of AccuWeather said.