If you’ve lived in the Ozarks for any length of time, you’ve noticed how unpredictable our weather is. We have had three months of below-average rainfall. Early projections predict that November will begin with a deluge.
A cold front is forecast to pass through Wednesday night, bringing the possibility of thunderstorms with it. This will be the trigger that allows the conveyor belt of gulf moisture to enter the Ozarks.
Wednesday’s frontal passage could drop an inch or more throughout the Ozarks.
Beginning Saturday, the rain train arrives in the Ozarks. Models are notoriously unpredictable more than seven days out. When looking at models this early, themes emerge as we move closer to the event. From Saturday to Wednesday, all models predict substantial rainfall in eastern Oklahoma and Kansas, as well as western Missouri and Arkansas.
Totals will be unclear for some time, but it appears that a big rainstorm will occur between Saturday and Wednesday, November 6, 2024. Inches of rain are possible. The last time Springfield had more than an inch of rain in one day was on August 13, 2024, with 1.09 inches.
Our western counties have been unusually dry over the previous three months, causing severe drought conditions to worsen. When the ground dries out due to drought, it can harden into concrete. Heavy rain prevents water from soaking in and causes runoff.
Early next week could be ideal for flash floods in the Ozarks. The OzarksFirst.com staff will keep you updated.